Almost two weeks to Election Day, I feel more uncertain about this year’s result than any election I’ve covered professionally. Some of that is due to the polls – they’re really tight – but it’s also because for every good signal for Donald Trump, there seems to be a good one for Kamala Harris.
Many Americans believe this election has a lot on the line. And yet to me, it’s still a race with multiple potential outcomes – from a clear Harris victory to a contest that can’t be projected until late into election night (or week) to a decisive Trump win.
Let’s start with a simple proposition: Harris’ easiest path victory runs through winning the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If she loses in the Sun Belt battlegrounds (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina), carrying the three Great Lakes states, along with Nebraska’s 2nd District and all the other states Joe Biden won in 2020, would get Harris to exactly 270 electoral votes.
Polling averages in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin show the margins between Harris and Trump at under a point right now. Were that to hold until Election Day, it would be the first time in at least 50 years that any of those three states had final average margins within a point.
More than that, the margins in those states have been consistently close since Harris got into the race in July. Neither Trump nor Harris has ever led in any of those states by 5 points or more, which mirrors the national polling. It’s the first time in over 60 years that no candidate has led by 5 points or more nationally at any point in the race.
Many Republicans are hoping that the close polling points to a blowout win for Trump next month. The former president outperformed the polls significantly in 2016 and 2020. If Trump did so again, he would likely coast to victory, getting over 300 electoral votes.